Shinoji Research

Market Insights & more.

  • FTX Bankruptcy Plan – Here’s the recovery rate for each coin

    FTX has recently filed it’s widely awaited Chapter 11 bankruptcy exit plan, in this plan we learn exactly how the distributions will work, for customers and some other creditors. The Breakdown (from Thomas Braziel on X): From realized funds alone, enough liquidity is available to cover customer payouts and the variablity (the difference between optimistic…

  • Corrected: Scammers claim to have Hacked BitFinex, launch phony investment

    An onion site recently sprung up, which was mentioned by a few pepoleover the last few days, for claiming to have hacked BitFinex. This site is a copycat of a hacking group from a few years ago and many people (including myself) assumed it was the same group. Earlier today I made a poorly worded…

  • A look at Apple Vision Pro scalping on eBay

    It’s become a hallmark of the 2020s that when a hot new tech item launches, inevitably it sells far above it’s MSRP price, at least initially. The Apple Vision Pro is no different, with the added factor that for those of us outside of the US, buying from a scalper is the only option. The…

  • A comparison of Luna & Ethena

    I think most people still do not understand the problem with luna, which is a uniquely poor design. While there are similarites, I hope to contrast these two projects, and explain why Luna was always guaranteed to fail. There are ~3 ways to make a stablecoin. Backed by the underlying (Tether, USDC, modern DAI indirectly…

  • Thoughts on “Read Write Own”

    This is a book I first heard of from Protos’ reporting on A16z’s sketchy behavior regarding the ‘bestseller’ status of this book. I decided to see what the alleged bestseller is actually made of and read it. This is not really a book review so much as commentary on the ideas expressed in the book.…

  • Crypto Lenders – The worlds most incompetent loan sharks

    What links Alameda, Gemini lending, Roger Ver, 3 arrows capital & FTX, and technically also bitconnect? The first crypto lending platform was probably the well known ponzi scheme Bitconnect, which paid an insanely high interest rate of “1% / day” for around a year before collapsing. Bitconnect claimed that their ‘lending program’ would borrow your…

  • Accelerating math with PyO3

    In this article I will attempt to benchmark the mathematical performance of PyO3, & pure python 2 ways using an approximation of the following function for computing pi (substituting infinity with a chosen number). First of all we will create a function in Pure Python & Pure Rust, then we can do 2 integrations. First…

  • Misery Loves Statistics

    Statistical tricks of permabears, doomers & cranks. I’m not sure what drives these people, for some it’s promoting dodgy ‘alternative’ investments after the world falls down. Other seem to be living in a doomsday cult of their own creation. A few of the statistical biases I see a fair amount, I’ll add more when necessary.…

  • What Gary Wang/ Alameda Research’s “modelbot” trading interface actually looks like

    Edit: Since this article ranks highly on Google for “Modelbot” I would point out that there is a new ‘shitcoin’ going around called modelbot. It is not affiliated with me (despite them using my images / screenshots as marketing), Alameda Research, nor does it (I did try to reach out) represent a recreation effort. Some…

  • Alameda’s Journey Into Insolvency – The FTX Post Mortem

    The US Government has recently dropped a new trove of files on SBF, and with this new information we finally have for the first time clear cut evidence and a timeline of Alameda’s borrowing. One of my favorite ever pieces of crypto research was WizSec’s execellent coverage of the Mt Gox collapse, where thanks to…