Market Insights & more.
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Efficiently storing tick-level financial data
Since December of 2023, I built a system to record every trade in the entire stock market from Polygon.io’s feed. I have been using this in conjunction with timescaledb to create bars for the various intervals for my trading and research systems. The Problem The system has been working great, but there has been one…
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Leveraged ETFs as Long Term Investments: Assessing the Risks & Rewards
Since 2020, a trend has emerged in in retail investing: the long-term holding of leveraged ETFs, as opposed to their traditional use in day trading. This shift is illustrated by this chart from Topdowncharts.com shared on X. While conventional wisdom often advises against this practice, a growing number of investors appear to be disregarding such…
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FTX Bankruptcy Plan – Here’s the recovery rate for each coin
FTX has recently filed it’s widely awaited Chapter 11 bankruptcy exit plan, in this plan we learn exactly how the distributions will work, for customers and some other creditors. The Breakdown (from Thomas Braziel on X): From realized funds alone, enough liquidity is available to cover customer payouts and the variablity (the difference between optimistic…
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Corrected: Scammers claim to have Hacked BitFinex, launch phony investment
An onion site recently sprung up, which was mentioned by a few pepoleover the last few days, for claiming to have hacked BitFinex. This site is a copycat of a hacking group from a few years ago and many people (including myself) assumed it was the same group. Earlier today I made a poorly worded…
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A look at Apple Vision Pro scalping on eBay
It’s become a hallmark of the 2020s that when a hot new tech item launches, inevitably it sells far above it’s MSRP price, at least initially. The Apple Vision Pro is no different, with the added factor that for those of us outside of the US, buying from a scalper is the only option. The…
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A comparison of Luna & Ethena
I think most people still do not understand the problem with luna, which is a uniquely poor design. While there are similarites, I hope to contrast these two projects, and explain why Luna was always guaranteed to fail. There are ~3 ways to make a stablecoin. Backed by the underlying (Tether, USDC, modern DAI indirectly…
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Thoughts on “Read Write Own”
This is a book I first heard of from Protos’ reporting on A16z’s sketchy behavior regarding the ‘bestseller’ status of this book. I decided to see what the alleged bestseller is actually made of and read it. This is not really a book review so much as commentary on the ideas expressed in the book.…
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Crypto Lenders – The worlds most incompetent loan sharks
What links Alameda, Gemini lending, Roger Ver, 3 arrows capital & FTX, and technically also bitconnect? The first crypto lending platform was probably the well known ponzi scheme Bitconnect, which paid an insanely high interest rate of “1% / day” for around a year before collapsing. Bitconnect claimed that their ‘lending program’ would borrow your…
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Accelerating math with PyO3
In this article I will attempt to benchmark the mathematical performance of PyO3, & pure python 2 ways using an approximation of the following function for computing pi (substituting infinity with a chosen number). First of all we will create a function in Pure Python & Pure Rust, then we can do 2 integrations. First…
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Misery Loves Statistics
Statistical tricks of permabears, doomers & cranks. I’m not sure what drives these people, for some it’s promoting dodgy ‘alternative’ investments after the world falls down. Other seem to be living in a doomsday cult of their own creation. A few of the statistical biases I see a fair amount, I’ll add more when necessary.…